Apple, the brand that synonym with iPhone will release it’s latest sensation,  iPad and the next generation of iPhone, iPhone 4G by end of this March and June respectively. Maxis, which is the sole telco provide for iPhone is expexted to continue it’s partnership with Apple, but do you think Apple will struck the deal with other carriers?

I’m not analyst nor expert on this field, but here are some food of thought.

1) No Second player.
Malaysian is relatively small market to have iPhone distributed by other carrier. The latest stat showing that we have near saturated mobile market, with over 100% penetration rate by last year. With population about 27 millions (as of 2008),  there are now more users subscribing to more than 1 line which bring the total mobile user close to 28 millions. Of all this number, not everyone can afford or willing to fork out thousands of ringgit to purchase iPhone along with the expensive data plan. In addition to that, Apple will have share on every iPhone package sold to customers. Carrier will definitely carrying feasibility study in order to identify if this revenue sharing model will benefit both parties. Together with the projected number of potential customer , it will determine the if deal is worthy.

2) Partner & loyalty.
In the US, Apple has again partnered with AT&T to sell iPad, any have high chance to exended the deal with AT&T as their sole carrier in the US until 2011. US is huge market, with over 250 millions population. And they do have deep pocket too.  Of how AT&T manage to struck the deal is remain unknown, but you can guess that, it must be lucrative deal that keep Apple on the bay.  Same thing can be said for Maxis, if they’re the only carrier that submit the application for iPad/iPhone distributor right,  or they’re the one that offer the most lucrative deal.

3) Celcom & Blackberry.
As I was a Celcom customer for a very long time, I wish Celcom will sell iPhone as well, but I do feel that’s not gonna happen anytime soon. Celcom is currently leading the Blackberry segment in Malaysia with 52% market share. Although Maxis and Digi does offer and sell Blackberry service, it could be seen that Celcom is partnering with RIM very well recently,  and manage to be the first to offer the Blackberry device. This is an evident where Celcom is the first carrier to launch the latest 3 Blackberry device begin with Curve 8520, Bold 9750 and Storm 9520. Celcom will continue pushing for bigger share or Blackberry share market, which require capital expenditure in term of infrastructure and human resources (eg, sales, support).

To have iPhone at the same time, will see them having the same fate as Maxis, which once leading Blackberry market share, before surrendering the lead upon iPhone arrival.

4)Maxis’s HSPA+
On December last year, Maxis has launched HSPA+ technology in selected areas in Klang Valley and Johor Bharu. Do you see the relation between iPhone and HSPA+? Well, iPhone is known as data-hungry device. The recent study shows that iPhone consume as much as 5x more data that other smartphones. That is predictable as it’s app stone alone has over 100k applications. Demand for data will continue to grows in future, and that’s come along the demand for speedier network. Maxis is in the forefront with this HSPA+ technology to bring this data to smartphones as well as other internet users with the speed that superior than other rival. This is vital to continue provide sufficient network to iPhone and iPad if Maxis manage to land the deal.

5) Size does matter.
Maxis is simply the largest carrier in Malaysia. Although largest doesn’t always means the best, it has few luxury that other doesn’t have. The sheer size, users and capital giving Maxis huge advantage in order to lure deals from Apple.

• Largest  marketshare 40% (11.25 millions user)
• Revenue Market Share - 41%
• Highest Postpaid ARPU - RM102.9 permonths - Maxis subsidized the iPhone it sell with the data and voice/sms plan (postpaid). Higher ARPU indicate how much revenue it earn from each users, and that reflected their spending power as well. Apple loves this spending power of this user can be translated to extra revenue through it’s App Store.
• Highest Ebitda - 50.6%

6) Telenor factor for Digi?
Digi is the smallest carrier with about 7.2 millions users, but it is one of the innovative one. The fact that it’s parent company, Telenor which was granted the right to sell iPhone in Norway beginning last July is an eye opener. It is remain unknown however, if Telenor do have interest to sell iPhone here in Malaysia through Digi. But, even if Telenor has such desire, would there be any clause in Maxis & Apple deal, that stating the exclusivity of selling iPhone in Malaysia is only for Maxis?

Another things that could possibly rule out Digi is, their own 3G coverage which still remain largely at major cities thourough Malaysia, compared to it’s larger rival which has wider coverage.

7) Best deal wins.
Of all points stated before, the money is always the key decider. In the US, although Verizon is the largest carrier with the widest 3G (and HSPA if I’m not mistaken) coverage, but AT&T who are the second largest carrier (and one of the most disliked carrier due to their buggy network) manage to struck the deal, and even extending it for few more year. See who is the master dealer here?? At the end of the day, the best deals win!!

So it still possible to see Celcom and Digi selling iPhone in future, although that will remain millions dollar question, at this point of time.

Source of figure